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Feb 18, 2026
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AVOID
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Green explicitly states we are in a "Giant AI CapEx Bubble" and that the amount of money being spent on infrastructure is "mind-boggling" relative to current revenue. Overbuilding is rampant. Similar to the telecom fiber bubble, capacity is being built that may not be utilized immediately, leading to massive depreciation cycles that will hurt the owners of this hardware/infrastructure. AVOID. The risk/reward for pure-play infrastructure build-out is skewed to the downside if utilization lags. If AI adoption accelerates exponentially (AGI), the demand for compute could outstrip even this massive build-out. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026...
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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Green calls Palantir an "amazing company" and owns the stock. Newman notes they are a driver in the enterprise space. Despite high valuations, PLTR is in a "category of one" for delivering actual revenue/margin expansion from AI (the "receipts"). They are successfully bridging the gap between AI hype and operational utility. LONG. A winner in the "application layer" of AI. Extremely high valuation multiples make it vulnerable to any growth deceleration. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026...
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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Green points out that Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent have doubled off their lows but remain cheap, generating billions in profit. The geopolitical discount is too steep. The US and China will likely find a way to coexist ("One plus one equals four"), and these companies are dominant monopolies trading at value multiples. LONG. A contrarian value play against the expensive US tech sector. Geopolitical tensions escalating or further regulatory crackdowns from Beijing. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026...
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